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The trends, based on limited PCR test results, do not capture the full level of infection but indicate the impact on business and services caused by staff absences due to the virus.

Proof that Covid shows no mercy is seen in its grabbing headlines yesterday for pushing up hospitalisations of patients with the virus as Ireland baked on the hottest day of the year so far.

If it can command that kind of spread when the nation’s thoughts should be on holidays, not hospital numbers, then what can we expect this winter?

Hospitalisations

Yesterday morning there were 1,055 patients with Covid in hospital, the highest since April when the BA.2 form of Omicron was dominant. Although the weekend-effect with slower discharges is behind some of the rise, it is following the usual pattern of a Covid wave albeit at a more gradual pace this time.

The BA.5 version, and to a lesser extent BA.4, have managed to spoil the summer, with hospitalisations climbing more slowly this time but reaching levels to cause significant disruption at a vital time for reducing the number of patients on waiting-list backlogs.

Ireland might be seeing the peak when it comes to Covid infections but the recent rise means there is a time lag between people getting the virus and hospitalisations.

The numbers with the virus in intensive care have also risen – up from mid-20s figures in June to 40 yesterday.

There is some consolation however that the numbers with the virus in intensive care who are on ventilators, and the most critically ill have fallen thanks to protections from vaccination and previous Covid infection.

In early January this year nearly 60 patients were on ventilators on a typical day compared to fewer than 10 on one day last week.

Also just half of people with Covid in hospital are there due to complications and it appears most have a very short stay if admissions and discharges are to go by. In intensive care around one third are very sick directly due to the virus and others have it but have another illness. A significant number of patients are also picking it up in hospital.

It suggests the numbers of Covid patients in hospital are more a reflection of higher rates in the community rather than severe disease.

Deaths

When it comes to deaths, April saw an increase but numbers are now relatively stable. There were 320 notified deaths in March, 336 in April, 108 in May and 44 reported to late June.

Of those patients who are affected by Covid, most are over 65, with more than one in 10 aged 50-64. In recent weeks some 38 were aged 15-49, with a small number of children.

Waning immunity from the first booster as well as a slow take-up of a second shot among the over-65s has been cited as leading to more risk of illness in this group.

One in three in hospital as a direct result of Covid are either unvaccinated or partially vaccinated.

Booster shots

The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) and the European Medicines Agency (EMA) are recommending that second booster doses be considered for people between 60 and 79 years old.

But at the moment, there is no clear evidence to support giving a second booster dose to people below 60 years of age who are not at higher risk of severe disease. Neither is there clear evidence to support giving early second boosters to healthcare workers or those working long-term in care homes unless they are at high risk, the agencies said.

Last April both agencies recommended that people over 80 years of age be considered for a second booster.

However, the agencies noted at the time that it might be necessary to consider second boosters in people aged between 60 and 79, and vulnerable people of any age if there was a resurgence of infections.

The agencies said as a new wave is currently under way in Europe, with increasing rates of hospital and intensive care unit admissions, it is critical that public health authorities now consider people between 60 and 79 as well as vulnerable people of any age for a second booster. These could be administered at least four months after the previous one, with a focus on people who have received a previous booster more than six months ago.

Currently authorised vaccines continue to be highly effective in reducing Covid hospitalisations,
severe disease and deaths in the context of emerging Covid variants.

In Ireland a second booster is offered to everyone aged 65 and older and people aged 12 and older who are very immunocompromised.

Stella Kyriakides, the European Commissioner for Health and Food Safety, said that “our Covid-19 vaccines work, and offer good levels of protection against severe illness and hospitalisation. With cases and hospitalisations rising again as we enter the summer period, I urge everybody to get vaccinated and boosted as quickly as possible. There is no time to lose.

“I call on member states to roll-out second boosters for everyone over the age of 60 as well as all vulnerable persons immediately and urge everyone eligible to come forth and get vaccinated. This is how we protect ourselves, our loved ones and our vulnerable populations.”

Dr Andrea Ammon, the director of ECDC, said: “We are currently seeing increasing Covid-19 case notification rates and an increasing trend in hospital and intensive care admissions and occupancy in several countries mainly driven by the BA.5 sublineage of Omicron.

“This signals the start of a new, widespread Covid-19 wave across the European Union. There are still too many individuals at risk of severe Covid-19 infection whom we need to protect as soon as possible. We need to remind people of the importance of vaccination from the very first shot to the second booster. We have to start today.

“We expect adults 60 years and older and medically vulnerable populations will need a second booster dose.”

The National Immunisation Advisory Committee in this country will make a decision on whether to offer a second booster to the 60-64-year age group here during the summer or wait until autumn.

Omicron vaccine

There was good news from the EMA yesterday that it might be ready to approve a Covid vaccine that could tackle the Omicron variant by September. It could mean greater protection against Omicron. Ireland will get its share through EU procurement but it remains unclear what supplies will be like at the beginning.